Moody's: Latest economic data could boost Harris' chances

although Trump has a clear advantage in predicting the market, those who bet on Trump may need to consider the latest economic data, which shows that Harris as the current party candidate may benefit from substantial tailwinds. This is a conclusion drawn by analysts at Moody's Analytics based on research on past presidential elections. Justin Begley, an economist at Moody's Analytics, said: "The analysis model shows that it is still unknown who will win the election, because four states - Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, which account for a total of 57 electoral votes - are considered difficult to predict." A recent simulation conducted for clients showed that the significant decline in mortgage rates and the continued decline in gasoline prices since last year are increasing Harris's chances of winning. The growth of household income may also help increase Harris's chances of winning. Begley said: "Harris is expected to have an average advantage of 0.2 percentage points in the national popular vote, mainly because we have raised our forecast for actual household income in each state." The results of the model running 1000 times showed that the probability of Harris winning is 55.5%.