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BTC rallied 2.20% yesterday evening on the back of strong spot demand, briefly reclaiming the $68,000 handle before stabilising in the $67,000 region.

The desk saw heavy buying on long-dated 28 Mar options during US trading hours, with 600 contracts at 120k strike. This signifies that optimistic, long-shot buyers are returning amid this rally.

BTC spot ETF added $456.90 million yesterday, extending to a 4-day winning streak. The strong and growing inflows may be a leading indicator of further rallies as BTC heads back to its all-time-high of $73,790.

While the US election is the next key catalyst for BTC and crypto, markets remain uncertain as to where BTC will go post election. Options expiring near the election are trading at a 10% premium compared to other expiries. With everyone’s focus on the election, any change in the polls or either candidate’s campaign narrative will be amplified in spot prices.

Trade Idea

QCP’s Volatility Momentum Indicator (VMI) was triggered last night, indicating that the market is entering a period of heightened volatility. Given the bullish outlook and spike in volatility, we prefer a Principal Protected Sharkfin strategy to capitalize on upside convexity with zero downside.

BTC PRINCIPAL PROTECTED SHARKFIN

• Maturity: 27DEC24
• Strike: 80,000
• Barrier: 90,000
• Max Payout: 64.26% p.a. if spot expires just below 90,000 BTCUSD

Spot Ref: 67,150