History Suggests Crypto’s Bullish Momentum Should Continue Into the U.S. Election and Afterwards
With less than three weeks until the U.S. presidential election, traders are positioning themselves for what’s to come after Nov. 5 and how a new administration will respond to factors affecting financial markets, including crypto.
Crypto has been in an uptrend over the past week, with Chinese stimulus, Western central bank rate cuts, and perhaps the U.S. elections coming into clearer focus among the reasons cited for recent gains. While cryptos have only really been popular assets for one presidential election in the past (2020), the second half of October typically marks the beginning of a bullish period for financial assets like stocks, so crypto's move of late is perhaps not that unusual.
Indeed, a look at bitcoin shows the second half of October (16-31) produces double the returns of the first half of the month (1-15), according to Coinglass data from 2013 to 2023.
Using an implied performance against a theoretical value, ETC Group found bitcoin could move up to 10% in either direction based on the election. Given the current spot price just shy of $68,000, a 10% upside move would mean a new record high, surpassing March's $73,697. The team also found that the impact of the election would likely have the greatest effect on ADA and DOGE, with a 18% and 20% moves, respectively. In addition, data from Ycharts looking at presidential election years since 1950 shows the stock market tends to bottom out in September and/or October and then rally into November. So far, we're seeing just that with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, each of which have been on the rise since early last month.
Futures Market Updates
Bitcoin stayed at $67K, therefore hardly any new positions were opened.
Bitcoin Futures Updates
Total BTC Open Interest: $39.65B (+3.04%)
BTC Volume (24H): $63.80B (-36.95%)
BTC Liquidations (24H): $11.77M (Long)/$17.91M (Short)
Long/Short Ratio: 50.52%/49.48%
Funding Rate: 0.0088%
Ether Futures Updates
Total ETH Open Interest: $12.90B (+0.73%)
ETH Volume (24H): $19.97B (-42.43%)
ETH Liquidations (24H): $15.21M (Long)/$7.70M (Short)
Long/Short Ratio: 50.00%/50.00%
Funding Rate: 0.0103%
Top 3 OI Surges
RDNT: $23.75M (+96.26%)
MAXNEW: $684.46K (+92.19%)
GMCI30: $14.59K (+86.75%)
