Analysis: Bitcoin's performance in early October was mediocre, it may start a seasonal uptrend in the second half of the month

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Bitcoin has risen to a two-week high today. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of digital asset derivatives trading liquidity provider Orbit Markets, said: "The market may view China's stimulus measures as positive news for Bitcoin because people previously thought that capital flowing from Bitcoin into the Chinese stock market suppressed the price of cryptocurrency."

The U.S. presidential election could provide another support for digital assets. In recent days, prediction markets have shifted, believing that Republican candidate Trump, who supports cryptocurrencies, has a higher chance of winning than his Democratic competitor Vice President Harris.

Meanwhile, last week Mt.Gox postponed the deadline for repaying its remaining assets' creditors by one year to October 31st 2025. Arkham Intelligence estimates its remaining assets at about $2.9 billion. This delay alleviates concerns about an oversupply caused by creditors seeking to sell off Bitcoins for repayment.
Benjamin Celermajer, Co-Chief Investment Officer at Magnet Capital said: "Recent improvements in Trump's polls will amplify market acceptance and the positive impact of good news on prices. Good news such as Mt.Gox postponing its compensation plan will receive more positive responses."

Data shows that Bitcoin has averaged a 20% increase in October over the past ten years but started weak this October with almost no change in trend. Sean Farrell, Head of Digital Asset Strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC wrote in a report: "Historical data suggests that seasonal strength in crypto markets during October usually leans towards the second half of the month." (Bloomberg)