Bitcoin to $80K in Q4 2024? Bitwise CIO Explains What Needs to Happen First

• Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has weighed in on Bitcoin’s chances of making another move higher in 2024.
• Hougan has disclosed that several things need to happen first.
• Bitcoin is not off to a great start.

After an exciting Q1 that saw Bitcoin clinch new highs near the $74,000 price point, most crypto market participants had high hopes for the rest of the year. These hopes, however, have yet to materialize as the asset has slowly trended lower since the Q1 peak.

But optimism lingers as Bitcoin has entered its best month and quarter historically. Amid the anticipation, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has detailed the catalysts needed for Bitcoin to make another move higher.

Bitcoin to $80K Still in Play?

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has weighed in on Bitcoin’s chances of making another move higher in 2024. In a note to investors on Wednesday, October 9, Hougan suggested that Bitcoin could still hit the $80,000 price point in Q4 2024. According to the market analyst, however, the chances of this happening will depend on several factors.

One of these factors is the outcome of the U.S. elections. Hougan argued that it was less about the presidential race’s outcome and more about the balance in Congress, asserting that “anything but a Democratic sweep” would likely be positive for crypto in terms of policy. He noted that while the Republican party has strongly advocated for crypto, things have remained mixed with those on the Democratic side.

"To thrive, bitcoin doesn’t need politicians. It just needs them to get out of the way. And barring a Democratic sweep of both houses of Congress and the White House, I suspect they will, with the Democrats taking a more neutral approach to the industry," he wrote.

As highlighted by Hougan, things already appear to favor crypto in this regard, as Polymarket odds place the chances of a Democratic sweep at 20%, compared to a 32% chance of a Republican sweep.

Beyond politics, Hougan contended that Bitcoin needed macroeconomic tailwinds, such as one more 50 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve and an additional fiscal stimulus from China.

"The market is hungry for more. It currently expects an additional 50 bps in easing from the Federal Reserve by year's end, and additional fiscal stimulus from China as well. If it gets both, I suspect we will get our Q4 rally. If we don't, I think the disappointment could weigh on the market," he wrote.

Lastly, the Bitwise CIO noted that Bitcoin needed Q4 not to have any “major negative surprises” like big lawsuits, massive hacks, or major token unlocks.

Meanwhile, Hougan believes that Bitcoin’s rally could also be helped by a broad wave of crypto positivity that also sees altcoins rallying, pointing to the ‘ DeFi Summer of 2020′ that eventually led to Bitcoin making a 6x run as a reference of what is possible.

Despite the Bitwise CIO’s comments and the general market optimism, Bitcoin has not had the start to October, which is fondly called ‘Uptober’ in crypto circles, and Q4, which most would have hoped for.

Uptober Optimism Shaken

In 11 years, Bitcoin has posted an average gain of 23% in October, with only two Octobers ending in loss, earning its place as the asset’s best month on record. As such, investors had anticipated much of the same in October 2024, but Bitcoin’s shaky start to the month has given many pause for thought.

On October 1, 2024, Bitcoin recorded its worst start to the month since 2013, dropping as much as 6.5% from highs above the $64,000 price point to about $60,100. 

While the asset showed some resilience by surging from the lows on October 4 to trade near the $65,000 price point on October 7, it has since reversed course and is currently trading below the $61,000 price point.

On the Flipside

• Bitwise’s Matt Hougan believes that despite the above factors, Bitcoin will likely reach $80,000 and beyond in 2025 due to continued ETF flows and positive press.
• Bitcoin has still been one of the best-performing assets in 2024, regardless of whether it can make another run to new highs. The asset is up over 40% year-to-date (YTD).

Why This Matters

Bitcoin’s price action has appeared subdued in recent months, but Bitwise’s Hougan’s statements suggest that the asset may still have room to move to the upside.

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