XRP price hasn’t seen $1 since 2021 — But this could change in Q4

The XRP ( XRP ) market is well-positioned for a price surge between now and October, driven by a potential breakout on the charts, whale activity, and the end of Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC. In doing so, the XRP/USD pair could finally see values near or above $1, a level it hasn’t attained since 2021.

XRP price nears long-awaited technical breakout

XRP’s weekly chart reveals a symmetrical triangle pattern that has been forming since early 2018, characterized by converging trendlines that compress price action.

The cryptocurrency is testing the pattern’s upper trendline resistance, eyeing a successful breakout to pursue a run-up toward the next major resistance level at around $1 in the coming months. Howver, it would need to cross above $0.86—up around 45% from the current prices—which has historically acted as a significant barrier, most notably in January-March 2022 and July 2023.

XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

Other technical indicators support this bullish outlook. For instance, the weekly chart’s relative strength index (RSI) is rebounding from the 50 level, suggesting increasing buying momentum. Moreover, the volume profile indicates rising trading activity, often a precursor to a sustained price movement.

XRP whale accumulation boosts upside prospects

On-chain data from Santiment shows that most XRP whale cohorts have been accumulating the token in recent weeks.

For instance, the XRP supply held by its richest cohort—those holding over 1 billion native tokens (black)—has increased to 41.44% from 40.27% in 2024. That corresponds with a slight dip in the 100 million—1 billion XRP balance cohort (teal).

XRP supply distribution among whales. Source: Santiment

More recently, other whale cohorts have also picked up momentum in accumulation, namely those holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP tokens (brown).

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Accumulation among these high-value cohorts is often a bullish signal. Large investors typically increase their holdings when they anticipate higher prices in the future while leveraging their market influence to facilitate this.

Ripple vs. SEC potential settlement

The long-standing legal battle between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) appears to be nearing its conclusion.

In 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that XRP is not a security when sold on digital asset exchanges, marking a partial victory for Ripple. However, XRP is still considered a security when sold to institutional investors, meeting the conditions of the Howey test.

Significantly, a recent meeting between Ripple and the SEC has been rescheduled to July 25, 2024. This meeting is expected to discuss potential settlements.

Analysts believe that a favorable settlement could boost XRP's price. Furthermore, the potential approval of an XRP-spot ETF  should further drive market interest and price.

Source: X

Despite these optimistic signs, some legal experts remain cautious.

Former SEC lawyer Marc Fagel  expressed skepticism about the likelihood of a settlement, suggesting that the case might continue through the legal process. However, Ripple’s CEO, Brad Garlinghouse  is optimistic  that a resolution could be reached before the end of summer 2024.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.