Price analysis 2/19: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, ADA, AVAX, DOGE
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) snapped its five-week winning streak and fell by 0.42% last week as the United States Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index for January rose more than economists expected. Hot inflation reports increased concerns that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates till late in the year. Previously, market observers were anticipating a rate cut as early as March.
The adverse macroeconomic data has not affected Bitcoin’s ( BTC ) price, which rallied about 8% to finish the week at $52,137, its highest weekly close since November 2021 . Although $52,000 has been acting as a resistance for the past few days, the Bitcoin bulls have not hurried to book profits. This suggests that the market participants remain bullish for the long term.
Another positive in favor of Bitcoin is that outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) have been slowing down. After bleeding $5.64 billion in January, the outflows from GBTC have slowed to $1.37 billion in February.
Could Bitcoin start the next leg of the uptrend, pulling select altcoins higher? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index price analysis
The S&P 500 Index rebounded off the 20-day exponential moving average (4,940) on Feb. 13, indicating an uptrend.
However, the bears are not ready to give up easily and are trying to protect the overhead resistance of 5,048. The negative divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) cautions of a possible correction or consolidation in the short term.
A break below the 20-day EMA will indicate the start of a deeper correction. The index could then drop to the 50-day simple moving average (4,813) and subsequently to 4,650.
Contrary to this assumption, if the index continues higher and breaks above 5,048, it will signal the resumption of the uptrend. The index could then surge toward 5,200.
U.S. dollar Index price analysis
The U.S. dollar Index (DXY) attempted to start an up move on Feb. 13, but the rally met with strong selling pressure near 105.
The price turned down and reached the 20-day EMA (104), an important support to watch out for. If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will make one more attempt to propel the index to 106 and then to 107.
Conversely, if the index breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that higher levels continue to attract selling by the bears. The index may then slump to the 50-day SMA (103), which is likely to attract buyers.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin is consolidating in an uptrend. The bears are trying to stall the rally at $52,000, but the bulls have kept up the pressure.
A tight consolidation near a crucial resistance generally resolves to the upside. If the bulls shove and maintain the price above $52,000, it will indicate the start of the next leg of the uptrend. The BTC/USDT pair could then surge toward $60,000.
If bears want to prevent the up move, they will have to quickly drag the price below the 20-day EMA ($48,260). If they do that, the stops of several short-term traders may get hit. The pair could then plunge to the 50-day SMA ($44,647).
Ether price analysis
Ether ( ETH ) rebounded off $2,717 on Feb. 17, indicating that the bulls are trying to flip the level into support.
The ETH/USDT pair rose above the immediate resistance of $2,868 on Feb. 18, indicating the resumption of the uptrend. Buyers will try to maintain the momentum and kick the price to the psychologically critical level of $3,000.
The rally of the past few days has sent the RSI above 78, indicating the possibility of a minor correction or consolidation in the near term. Sellers will have to tug the price below the 20-day EMA ($2,615) to signal a short-term top.
BNB price analysis
BNB ( BNB ) has pulled back in an uptrend, suggesting profit booking by short-term traders. Generally, pullbacks do not last for more than three days in a strong uptrend.
The rising 20-day EMA ($330) and the RSI near the overbought territory indicate that the bulls are in control. If the price turns up and breaks above $367, it will suggest that the uptrend has resumed. The BNB/USDT pair could then attempt a rally to $400.
Instead, if the price continues lower and slips below $348, the pair may reach the 20-day EMA. This level may again attract buyers, but if the bears prevail, the pair may plummet to the 50-day SMA ($314).
XRP price analysis
XRP ( XRP ) has been stuck between the downtrend line and the 20-day EMA ($0.54) for the past few days, indicating indecision between the bulls and the bears.
The 20-day EMA has started to turn up gradually, and the RSI has risen into the positive zone, indicating that the bulls have the upper hand. If the price breaks and closes above the downtrend line, it will suggest that the correction may be over. The XRP/USDT pair will then attempt a rally to $0.67.
On the contrary, if the price turns down sharply from the downtrend line and plunges below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that bears remain in command. The pair may then descend to $0.50.
Solana price analysis
Solana ( SOL ) pulled back to the neckline of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on Feb. 17, and the bulls held their ground.
The upsloping 20-day EMA ($106) and the RSI above 62 indicate that the bulls have the upper hand. There is a minor resistance at $119, but that is likely to be crossed. The SOL/USDT pair could then retest the stiff overhead resistance of $127. If this level is scaled, the pair may reach the pattern target of $135.
This optimistic view will be negated in the near term if the price turns down and dives below the 20-day EMA. That may result in long liquidations, pulling the pair to the 50-day SMA ($100).
Related: Binance to shut down multiple leveraged token services
Cardano price analysis
Cardano’s ( ADA ) long tail on the Feb. 17 candlestick shows that the bulls continue to view dips to the 20-day EMA ($0.56) as a buying opportunity.
The bulls are trying to maintain the price above the immediate resistance of $0.62. If they manage to do that, the ADA/USDT pair could rally to the vital resistance at $0.68. This level may witness a tough battle between the bulls and the bears, but if the buyers prevail, the next stop is expected to be $0.90.
On the contrary, if the price turns down sharply from $0.68, it will indicate that the bears are vigorously defending the level. A break below the 20-day EMA will suggest that the bullish momentum has weakened.
Avalanche price analysis
Avalanche ( AVAX ) turned down from the $42 level on Feb. 15, but a positive sign is that the bulls did not allow the price to dip below the 20-day EMA ($38.40).
The bulls will again try to clear the obstacle at $42, and if they succeed, the AVAX/USDT pair will complete an inverse H&S pattern. The pair may then skyrocket to $50, which may prove to be a difficult barrier to cross.
On the downside, the 20-day EMA is the key support to watch out for. If this level cracks, the pair may slip to the 50-day SMA ($36.16). Such a move will suggest that the pair may oscillate between $32 and $42 for some time.
Dogecoin price analysis
The bears tried to pull Dogecoin ( DOGE ) back into the symmetrical triangle pattern on Feb. 17, but the bulls protected the level aggressively.
The 20-day EMA ($0.08) has started to turn up gradually, and the RSI is above 63, indicating that the bulls are attempting a comeback. If the bulls clear the hurdle at $0.09, the DOGE/USDT pair could climb to the $0.10 to $0.11 resistance zone.
This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down and collapses below the moving averages. Such a move indicates that the bears are selling on every minor relief rally. The selling could intensify on a break below the uptrend line.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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