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On-chain data for the 36th week: The rebound may be concentrated on the demand of whales to unwind their positions, and the short-term trend depends

BlockBeatsBlockBeats2024/09/10 06:28
By:BlockBeats

When substantial good news approaches, the market does not react at all, often due to excessive pessimism.

Original title: "After 6 months of brutal shocks, what are the real heavyweight players doing? | WTR 9.09"
Original source: WTR Research Institute


Review of this week


From September 2 to September 9 this week, the highest price of Bingtang Orange was around $59809 and the lowest price was close to $52550, with a fluctuation range of about 6.97%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips traded around 56000, which will have a certain support or pressure.



• Analysis:
1. 59000-63000 is about 1.44 million pieces;
2. 64000-68000 is about 930,000 pieces;
• The probability of not falling below 49000~53000 in the short term is 70%;
• The probability of not rising below 71000~74000 in the short term is 92%.


Important news


Economic news


1. On September 9, CICC's research report pointed out that the decline in the US unemployment rate in August reflected the reversal of temporary unemployment, which was in line with expectations; the US economy is still expected to achieve a soft landing, but the Federal Reserve must also take action.


2. According to CNBC, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the U.S. economy is in good shape, and the cold employment data in recent months shows that the economy is in a soft landing, not a recession.


3. Fed Governor Waller said that the "time has come" to start a series of rate cuts this month. "If the data supports continuous rate cuts, then I think continuous rate cuts are appropriate. If the data shows that a larger rate cut is needed, then I will also support it."


4. The number of new non-farm payrolls in the United States in August was lower than expected. Waller, one of the most influential officials of the Federal Reserve, said that it is crucial to start cutting interest rates in September and is open to the intensity and speed of the rate cut. The "New Fed News Agency" interpreted Waller's speech and said that he tends to hold a 25 basis point rate cut at the beginning.


5. After data showed that U.S. job growth in August was lower than expected, economists at Bank of America expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the next five interest rate meetings. This means that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times before the end of this year, one more than the two cuts previously predicted by Bank of America.


Crypto Ecosystem News


1. QCP: Institutions may believe that the market has bottomed out and increase bullish bets in December and March next year;


2. On September 9, broker Bernstein said in a research report on Monday that if Trump wins the US election in November, Bitcoin is expected to hit a new high later this year, and the price may reach $90,000 by the fourth quarter.


3. Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, a financial consulting publication, wrote on X: "This year's Bitcoin price structure is beginning to look surprisingly similar to that of 2019. Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase, and interestingly, just like in 2019, this consolidation has lasted for 175 days (so far).


4. A team of analysts at JPMorgan Chase (JPM) led by Kenneth Worthington said, "Overall, we still believe that the crypto ecosystem lacks major catalysts, so we expect crypto tokens and asset prices to become more sensitive to macro factors."


5. According to a report by blockchain analysis provider Chainaanalysis, the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) is taking the lead in developing financial infrastructure that will enable the country to use cryptocurrencies for international trade and circumvent Western sanctions.


6. Vitalik stated in the Reddit sub-forum that the current budget strategy of the Ethereum Foundation (EF) is to spend 15% of the remaining funds each year, which means that the foundation will operate forever, but as a part of the ecosystem it will become smaller and smaller over time.


Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Medium-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situation we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of some directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions


Long-term insights


• Long-term participants’ holding structure
• Net addition and destruction of chips
• High-quality selling pressure
• ETH address profit level


(The following figure shows the long-term participants’ holding structure)


The long-term participants’ holdings increased abnormally quickly, far surpassing the scene of chip re-collection in 2019.
From this point of view, long-term participants are still relatively in a firm buying stage. And they are relatively united.


(Figure below: Net addition and destruction of chips)


From the chart of chips added to destroyed, gold is the net addition. At present, the net addition of chips has increased significantly.


(Figure below: High-quality selling pressure)


High-quality selling pressure is still in a relatively low selling pressure area.
It shows that at this stage, no heavyweight participants have participated in more selling.


(Figure below: ETH address profit level)


It is interesting that from the perspective of ETH's profitable addresses, ETH's profit level is close to the bear market situation, and the state is very sluggish.
ETH's performance in this round is very tragic.


Mid-term exploration


• ETH exchange circulation ratio
• OTC related address balance
• Network sentiment positivity
• Liquidity supply
• Whale comprehensive score model


(The following figure shows the ETH exchange circulation ratio)


ETH's current circulation is better and has a higher ratio. It usually indicates that the market has a higher risk appetite and the overall stability may still be insufficient. The market may gradually stabilize when the ETH circulation ratio is low.


(The following figure shows the OTC related address balance)


The data represents the cumulative balance of cryptocurrencies stored in addresses related to over-the-counter (OTC) counters. It is possible that when the demand for OTC suddenly increases, the OTC merchants in the market will increase the storage of BTC, which in turn promotes the shortage of demand in the market.


Usually, when the data rises, it may indicate that some users have demand for BTC, which can be judged as a positive signal. It has now fallen to a lower point.


(Figure )


The network sentiment in the market is still declining, and the time for repair may be slightly longer.


(Figure )


Under the condition of declining liquidity, the overall trading enthusiasm in the market will also decline, which may cause the market to struggle.


(Figure below: Whale comprehensive score model)


From the current situation, whales still have a high demand, and whales may be the main support force in the market. At the same time, under the current conditions, there may be an urgent need for whales to unwind or rebound.


Short-term observation


• Derivatives risk coefficient
• Option intention transaction ratio
• Derivatives trading volume
• Option implied volatility
• Profit and loss transfer volume
• New addresses and active addresses
• Bingtangcheng Exchange net position
• Yitai Exchange net position
• High-weight selling pressure
• Global purchasing power status
• Stablecoin exchange net position
• Off-chain exchange data


Derivatives rating: The risk coefficient has entered the neutral area, and the risk is moderate.


(Figure below: Derivatives risk factor)


The market has been volatile recently, and derivatives have a low priority in the market. Currently, the market does not have much direction from the perspective of risk factor.


(Figure below: Option intention transaction ratio)


The option trading volume and the proportion of put options have increased significantly.


(Figure below: Derivatives trading volume)


The derivatives trading volume is at the bottom.


(Figure below: Option implied volatility)


The implied volatility has increased slightly.


Emotional status rating: neutral to negative


(Figure below: Profit and loss transfer volume)


The market's positive sentiment (blue line) is at a low level, and the panic sentiment (orange line) has risen slightly this week, but has now fallen. In general, the market is not as panicked as social media opinion shows. On the contrary, most of the chips in the loss situation are relatively diamond hands. In other words, there is no large-scale panic selling at present.


(Figure below: New addresses and active addresses)


New and active addresses are at a low level.


Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC has a small amount of inflow accumulation, and ETH has a medium amount of inflow accumulation.


(The net position of Bingtangcheng Exchange in the figure below)


BTC has a small inflow, and the chips that have flowed in before have not been digested.


(The net position of E-Tai Exchange in the figure below)


ETH has a medium amount of inflow accumulation.


(The high-weight selling pressure in the figure below)


There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.


Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power is in a state of loss, and stablecoin purchasing power is lost in large quantities.


(Global purchasing power status in the figure below)


America’s purchasing power is still losing.


(USDC exchange net position in the figure below)


USDC exchange net position is losing a lot.

Off-chain transaction data rating: Willing to buy at 50,000; Willing to sell at 65,000.


(Coinbase off-chain data in the figure below)


Willing to buy at prices around 50,000; Willing to sell at prices around 65,000 and 70,000.


(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)


There is a willingness to buy at a price around 50,000;
There is a willingness to sell at a price around 65,000 and 70,000.


(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)


There is a willingness to buy at a price around 45,000;
There is a willingness to sell at a price around 67,000.


Summary of this week:


Summary of news:


1. The market is almost experiencing the "ongoing" soft landing of the US economy for the first time; at the same time, doubts from different angles are nurtured and emanated.
2. At the same time, market participants are also in an extremely sensitive state, and some slight disturbances are enough to cause an uproar.
3. When substantive good news is approaching, the market has no reaction, often due to excessive pessimism.
4. Waiting for the market to cut interest rates. At present, there are not many mainstream narratives in the crypto market, which may be more sensitive to the macro economy.
5. After the interest rate cut, part of the US $6 trillion+ funds will flow back to the capital market and risk market.


Long-term insights on the chain:


1. Long-term participants' on-chain holdings have increased very rapidly and have not wavered at all;
2. Judging from the addition and destruction of chips, it is currently in a stage of adding a large number of chips;
3. High-quality selling pressure is still in a low range, proving that heavyweight players have not sold too much;
4. Judging from the profit level of ETH addresses, it has returned to the previous bear market.


• Market tone:
Although the market has experienced quite brutal shocks in the past six months, long-term participants have not wavered at all. At present, heavyweight participants have not had any intention to sell, and the market may gradually stabilize.


On-chain mid-term exploration:


1. ETH accounts for a high proportion, and market stability may need to be restored;
2. OTC demand is low;
3. Network sentiment is waiting to be repaired;
4. Liquidity is currently in a relatively scarce state;
5. Whales may currently have a need to unwind.


• Market tone:
Repair, wandering
The market is approaching the edge of the limit of decline, and there may be a period of wandering and repair. The rebound force may be concentrated in the demand for whales to unwind.


On-chain short-term observation:


1. The risk factor has entered the neutral area, and the risk is moderate.
2. The number of newly added active addresses is relatively low.
3. Market sentiment rating: neutral to negative.
4. The overall net position of the exchange shows a small amount of BTC inflow accumulation, and a medium amount of ETH inflow accumulation.
5. Global purchasing power is in a state of loss, and stablecoin purchasing power is lost in large quantities.
6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 50,000; there is a willingness to sell at 65,000.
7. The probability of not falling below 49,000~53,000 in the short term is 70%; the probability of not rising above 71,000~74,000 in the short term is 92%.


• Market Tone:
There are two aspects to consider at present. First, the market has not yet experienced a huge panic sell-off. Second, purchasing power and positive sentiment are still in a state of loss, and the market may continue to fluctuate or plunge downward. Overall, in September, the short term is more dependent on the stimulation of news.


Risk Warning: The above are all market discussions and explorations, and do not have directional opinions on investment; please be cautious and prevent market black swan risks.


This article comes from a contribution and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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