Arthur Hayes expects a crypto bull run to start in September

Arthur Hayes, the infamous former BitMEX CEO, expects a massive crypto bull run to kick off this September. 

According to Arthur, the key factor that will drive this market surge is none other than the U.S. Treasury and its plans to flood the market with Treasury bills (T-bills). 

He told us that the sideways action we’ve seen in the crypto markets since April isn’t just a random occurrence. Arthur points out that April is when most tax receipts roll in, leading to reduced borrowing by the Treasury. 

With fewer T-bills issued between April and June, liquidity was sucked out of the market. This drained the system of the cash needed to push financial assets, including Bitcoin, higher. 

Arthur explained that the cash got stuck on the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, sitting idle in the Reverse Repo Program (RRP), instead of flowing into the markets where it could fuel price growth.

Liquidity games: The treasury’s impact on Bitcoin

To back up his theory, Arthur pointed to the relationship between Bitcoin’s price and the amount of money parked in the RRP. He said that from January to April, when T-bills were being issued, the RRP balance dropped, and Bitcoin soared. 

As T-bills were withdrawn from the market, the RRP balance climbed, and Bitcoin’s price stagnated, with a few sharp dips along the way. 

He stopped his analysis on July 1st, just before the yen strengthened, which triggered a wide scale selloff in risky assets.

Arthur predicted that as the Treasury begins to issue $301 billion in T-bills between now and the end of the year, Bitcoin will bounce back, recovering from the hit it took due to the yen’s rise. 

His target? A cool $100,000 for Bitcoin!

But Arthur doesn’t stop there. He throws in some love for altcoins, or as he calls them, “shitcoins.” 

He believes these high-beta plays on Bitcoin will come roaring back, but only after Bitcoin and Ethereum smash through key levels—$70,000 and $4,000, respectively. 

Solana, he says, could jump over $250, but don’t expect it to spark a market-wide rally like Bitcoin and Ethereum will. According to Arthur, the real fun begins when the dollar liquidity-pumped rally in Bitcoin and Ethereum lays the groundwork for a return of the “sexy shitcoin soiree.”

Prepping for the bull run

With the U.S. election coming up in November, Arthur predicts that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will be pulling out all the stops to pump liquidity into the market, especially in October. 

For the crypto icon, this means selling into the strength of the market as it heats up, though he won’t be cashing out completely. 

Instead, he plans to take profits from his more speculative momentum trades and move the capital into staked Ethena USD (sUSDe). He’s playing it safe until after the U.S. debt ceiling is raised, which he expects to happen in January or February.

Janet Yellen

After the debt ceiling drama is over, Arthur believes liquidity will flood the market, possibly with help from the Federal Reserve. 

This is when he expects the real bull market to begin, and his ultimate target is a $1 million Bitcoin.  Arthur also dropped a hint about China’s potential role in this future bull market. 

He told us he expects that once Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell get their act together, China will finally roll out its long-awaited fiscal stimulus. 

According to Arthur, this will set the stage for a 2025 Sino-American crypto bull market that will be nothing short of “glorious!”