Coming online soon, what is the reasonable price of LayerZero (ZRO)?

Original article by Axel Bitblaze

Original translation: Alex Liu, Foresight News

Let’s talk about what you’re all most concerned about right now. At what price will ZRO hit the market, and how much will your ZRO airdrop allocation be worth? Here are my thoughts on LayerZero’s airdrop allocation, price predictions, and listing plans.

Airdrop Allocation

I agree with most of the criticism that the airdrop model was poorly executed. Many people worked hard for a whole year to get 200-300 tokens. In my opinion, they (LayerZero) should put another 1-2% into the core allocation (the allocation you get when using the LayerZero underlying protocol, as opposed to the RFP allocation you get when using LayerZero upper-layer applications) and things would be better. But in any case, our core allocation may still increase because not all witches have been removed and these shares will be redistributed to people. Considering the number of witches captured by LayerZero, the core allocation may increase significantly.

LayerZero CEO said that witches have not been completely removed and will recover this part of the token allocation

Price Prediction

First, in order to predict the price of ZRO when it launches, we need to find the following data: Expected FDV (Fully Released Value), Total Token Supply. Then, the price of ZRO when it launches can be calculated by: FDV / Total Supply.

Total Supply

Confirmed by LayerZero CEO Bryan, the total token supply is 1 billion.

LayerZero CEO confirms total token supply is 1 billion

FDV

How do I estimate FDV? My usual approach when estimating FDV at launch is to look at the FDV of recent projects with similar financing and competitors. To do this, I will consider what STRK and W look like when they launch.

In fact, the FDV at launch also depends heavily on how much money the project has raised and what its valuation was at the time of the fundraising. In my ZK price prediction thread, I made the mistake of not taking into account its valuation at the time of the fundraising, as it was not disclosed, and I summarized how it affected my calculations in a post .

So, why STRK and W? Predicting prices requires considering the FDV of recently launched projects, the amount of funding raised, and the valuation at the time of funding. The valuations of these two tokens at the time of funding are public, which is why I am comparing STRK and W to help us predict the FDV of ZRO.

Comparison with recent projects:

STRK:

• Raised: $282 million

• Valuation: $8 billion

• Online FDV: $28 billion

W:

• Raised: $225 million

• Valuation: $2.5 billion

• Online FDV: $17 billion

ZRO:

• Raised: $263 million

• Valuation: $3 billion

• FDV Online: Let’s take a look

It can be clearly seen from the above that:

• STRKs FDV is 3.5 times its valuation.

• Ws offering price is 6.5 times its valuation.

Considering how bad market conditions are, I think its reasonable to expect ZRO to be valued at least 2-3x the $3B valuation, which would imply a $6B ~ $9B FDV.

Price? FDV / Total Supply. ZRO Total Supply: 1 B. So $ZRO:

• $6 B FDV = $6

• $7 B FDV = $7

• $8 B FDV = $8

• $9 B FDV = $9

my plan

I think LayerZero is here to stay. Unlike L1 and L2 chains that need to actively attract people to participate, LayerZero is more like an infrastructure project that almost all existing and upcoming projects will use as a cross-chain layer.

This means that even if users dont consciously use LayerZero technology, they will still be exposed to it because it is integrated into many projects. It is different from L1 and L2, where you have to convince people to actually use your chain. Hopefully that makes sense, haha.

My target FDV and target price:

• $5 B FDV or less: I will buy more

• I would consider taking partial profits around $8 B FDV

• I would completely sell between $15B and $20B FDV

In terms of price:

• $5 or less: Buy in

• Take partial profit at $8

• Sell completely between $15 and $20