How Profitable Can Short Dramas Be in Web3?

Author: TuoLuo Finance

 

When it comes to vertical short dramas, everyone is familiar.

Since last year, short dramas have fully invaded short video platforms. "1 minute 3 twists, rebirth and revenge, extravagant melodrama"—various short, frequent, and fast content, driven by the hidden desires of human nature, quickly captured users' minds under the stimulation of pleasure points, becoming a money-making tool that users are willing to pay for. This trend has even sparked a wave of "spiritual opium" overseas.

This year, users who have seen enough of the extravagant family feuds have turned their attention to supporting characters. "Aunt Wang" and "Butler Li" have become popular again. The short drama industry, under the improvement of rules, has moved away from wild growth towards standardization and high quality.

And recently, the trend of short dramas seems to have finally reached Web3.

01 Multiple Short Dramas Released, Web3 Ushers in a Wave of Short Dramas

Recently, a piece of information about a short drama on Platform X has been frequently shared. The news states that the first Web3 native short drama "Rebirth: I Became a Big Shot in the Crypto World," invested by IBGTGVC and produced by TShow2008, will officially premiere on the Huobi Live platform on May 22. Previously, this drama had already gained some attention in the industry due to a joke about Satoshi Nakamoto being inherently smart at its launch ceremony.

Poster of "Rebirth: I Became a Big Shot in the Crypto World," Source: Platform X

Although it has not yet been released and is still in the discussion stage, this is not actually the first Web3 short drama. As early as April 26, the short drama "Back to the Future: I Am the King of Bitcoin," released by the BitRealms platform, had already premiered. By May 7, this 50-episode Web3-themed short drama had concluded. However, perhaps due to publicity issues, it wasn't until the popularity of "Rebirth: I Became a Big Shot in the Crypto World" rose that this short drama truly came to the forefront of Web3. Due to the similarity in their names, the two were even once thought to be the same drama, which brought some traffic to "King of Bitcoin."

Poster of "Back to the Future: I Am the King of Bitcoin," Source: Public Information

From the two dramas, both have inherited the "爽文" (shuangwen) tradition of short dramas, coincidentally choosing the form of rebirth and counterattack. "Rebirth: I Became a Big Shot in the Crypto World" follows the entrepreneurial journey of Xia Bensong after a rebirth from a liquidation, while "King of Bitcoin" follows Mason's revenge and counterattack after being betrayed by his wife and best friend. Both use humorous and witty ways to present the nearly 15-year history of blockchain, focusing on important events and figures in the Web3 field.

In terms of specific techniques, both dramas mainly use the methods of parodying celebrities and finding real-life stand-ins. To be honest, from a sensory perspective, regardless of the unreleased "Big Shot," the already aired "Back to the Future: I Am the King of Bitcoin" has a narrative logic that can be described as melodramatic. The exaggerated expression of character traits is not much different from general short dramas, and there are some borderline details. However, from user feedback, many people still appreciate it, which may also be the charm of short dramas.

He Yi's joke about casting, Source: Platform X

02 How Will Web3 Short Dramas Develop? The Business Model is Key

Returning to Web3 itself, in fact, from the perspective of the subject matter, presenting the ups and downs of the 15 years in the crypto field in the form of a drama is highly feasible. Whether it's the rags-to-riches story of an English teacher, the counterattack of a beef boss, or the cold wind blowing on a foreign kid in Shanghai, these are all classic stories in the crypto world. The rise and fall of miners, the hundred-group battle of exchanges, and the competition of public chains all have good narrative and reversal potential.

But why have short dramas only started to become popular with Web3 as the theme now? On one hand, it naturally has the characteristics of the niche crypto field, but on the other hand, the profit model has become the key.

In traditional short dramas, apart from a small portion of advertising revenue and e-commerce channel income, the vast majority of revenue comes from the subscription system of members, where users pay in the form of episodes or packages. From the cost side, apart from the daily costs of actors, shooting, and editing, 80-90% of the cost needs to be spent on traffic on short video platforms. Depending on the quality of production, the production cost of a short drama is about 200,000 to 500,000 yuan, and an ROI of at least 1.2 is required to achieve profitable growth.

But this gameplay is considered very un-crypto, because most of the profits are obtained by centralized platforms, and the revenue channels are not wallets but WeChat or Alipay. It can be considered a purely Web2 scenario. However, a large part of the target audience for Web3 short dramas is precisely crypto people. Therefore, combining the existing structure with the special mechanisms of Web3 naturally becomes the main consideration for the issuers.

From BitRealms' perspective, in "Back to the Future: I Am the King of Bitcoin," a "Watch to Earn" NFT-like airdrop model that is very in line with crypto characteristics was adopted. After linking the wallet on its official platform and watching the short drama, tokens IBOSS will be randomly dropped 100%. If you hold the platform's airdropped Popcorn Pass, the drop rate will increase by 15-30 times. In short, the Popcorn Pass is similar to an acceleration chip for mining machines, which can accelerate the computing power efficiency of mining through Watch on the platform. According to official reports, the drama has had over 1.5 million views across the network.

From the above text description alone, the producer's profit model seems to have only two ways: launching project tokens on the secondary market or selling Popcorn Pass. From the performance of the token, IBOSS is currently listed on Solana, with a total supply cap of 1 billion tokens. After being listed, its price trend is similar to other MEMEs. It was pushed up to $0.0088578 on May 7 and has now fallen back to $0.0007007, slightly higher than the opening price on May 7.

IBOSS price trend, Source: Geckoterminal

To continue operating the token, the platform has reached a strategic cooperation with the Web3 short video social application Whistle and is also expected to reach secondary distribution agreements with traditional short drama platforms such as Dianzhong Technology and Qimao, exploring the possibility of returning profits to the community from Web2 user groups. As of now, the project has earned $2,000 in profits on Whistle, and the platform has announced that it will use it for token buybacks. However, this amount is undoubtedly a drop in the bucket for a MEME pump.

Although a one-time profit model is quite normal in the crypto world, to sustain development, the issuer must enhance its self-sustaining ability and maintain the liquidity of the token. BitRealms also admitted in an interview that the Popcorn Pass has not played any role in revenue because it has not been listed on the secondary market. The current main profit model focuses on undertaking project advertisements, obtaining income through customized content and scenario services for project parties.

In this context, startup funds become the absolute major part of short drama production, making the investment from capital parties particularly important. In this regard, another drama "Rebirth: I Became a Big Shot in the Crypto World" also had a mishap. The crew announced that on April 15, due to the crew's financial contract liquidation, actor salaries were delayed, and filming was suspended, becoming a joke with a strong crypto flavor.

Message from producer Li Erchai, Source: Platform X

Of course, some people suspect that this behavior is a manipulation, as producer Li Erchai has a history. Although many people may not be familiar with him now, Li Erchai was once a famous online promoter in China. Guo Meimei was launched by him, and he once planned and hyped false events such as "Monk Boat Shock" and "Daddy Takes Me to the Olympics." Due to excessive use of public opinion, he was sentenced to four years in prison for illegal business operations and fined 150,000 yuan.

Now, Li Erchai has transformed into a producer of short dramas. In a positive sense, his hype methods are bound to be better than other short dramas. In the crypto world, where traffic determines everything, this will be an important advantage. The fact is also true. Although "Back to the Future: I Am the King of Bitcoin" was released first, the most well-known short drama in the industry is still "Rebirth: I Became a Big Shot in the Crypto World."

From the perspective of the profit model, "Rebirth: I Became a Big Shot in the Crypto World" has not yet revealed any information, but from its main investor Aibi Capital and partner platform Huobi, project advertisements and platform traffic are still the core purposes. From a certain perspective, short dramas and exchanges have a certain degree of compatibility. Exchanges highly need traffic and are the absolute capital holders in the industry. Short dramas are precisely a direct channel for traffic and have a certain effect of breaking the circle.者的合作也是双赢模式。以此进行分析，若试水成功，该种合作模式将成为主要途径，后续以交易所以及大型项目方资本为主的短剧也有希望迎来发展。

总结而言，目前的 Web3 短剧制作均以广告为主要盈利模式，该种模式并非不可行，也有传统短剧以此为主要收入，但该模式先天具有高度的脆弱性，取决于项目方的广告预算与引流的实际成效，而叠加代币带来的额外成本，短剧维持长线运营难度较大，在 Web3 有限规模与复杂的门槛操作下，很难形成传统短剧的飞轮效应。长此以往，最后 Web3 短剧的发展，不是回归 Web2 的流量，就是形成以代币增值为核心的封闭生态。

从制作方看，两部短剧的制作方都是以短剧为抓手迈入生态化发展，BitRealms 方透露将以短剧与游戏为抓手，形成以娱乐内容资产化为基础的公平发射平台。而另一制作方 TShow 平台则计划在粉丝达到 2100 万后，上线发布平台币，以实现其付 U 看剧、持币分 U、燃烧参与的模式。

03 人人都 Earn，Web3 短视频终难长久

实际上，从行业来看，Web2 的视频场景已然也不是首次在 Web3 被复刻。若纵观 Web3 领域的视频平台发展，秉持 Web2 的一切都可以在 Web3 重建的信念，与抖音类似的短视频平台就曾多次在 Web3 昙花一现。火牛与秘乐，就是其中的典型代表。

2018 年，以「区块链 + 抖音」模式的短视频平台「火牛」曾火爆一时。在火牛上观看、发布视频或者拉新以及打赏，则可获得名为「火钻」的积分奖励，所有持火钻的用户都可以分享平台收入 80% 的分红。摒除更具有门槛的视频发布，火牛开放了充值平台，只要充值就可以获得火钻，充钱就可以直接享受现金分红，颇有些「人人持股，天天分红」的意味。

火牛视频的白皮书分红内容，来源：公开资料

尽管号称应用了区块链技术，但这一平台实际没有任何区块链性质，既无钱包也无提现，更无内容上链，分红也是以人民币的形式。但凭借这一模式，在最火的时候，火牛视频曾有超过 1400 万的用户量，年化收益率高达 3000%。在高额收益下，用户纷纷投资充值，创始人被传 2 个月就拈财达到 8 亿元。但击鼓传花的庞氏游戏始终难以持续，仅用了三天时间，火牛的分红比例便降至此前的千分之一，用户投资最终血本无归，火牛视频也不了了之。

类似的操作还有 20 年上线的秘乐短视频，其曾经占据苹果 App store 中国区免费下载榜头名，半年 MAU 就达到了 2000 万，用户总量超过 5000 万人，在下沉市场非常火爆。秘乐与火牛一脉相承，尽管号称通过观看短视频就可「零撸」获取平台积分秘豆，但仍需要充值与拉人头才能获得更高的收益，与火钻不同的是，秘豆还可在二级市场进行交易，市场一度将毫无价值的秘豆炒至 20 多元一颗。最后，公司狂揽上亿的收割费，留下用户一地鸡毛。

在此提及火牛与秘乐，并非唱衰 Web3 短剧，毕竟 Web3 的短剧平台与上述还有着明确区别。首先，火牛与秘乐都是打着「区块链」的噱头挂羊头卖狗肉，两者实际上只是借鉴了挖矿这一概念的人民币资金游戏；其次，两者作为视频平台，平台内容呈现低质化，多是从其他平台切片而来的复刻视频，缺乏内容粘性；最后，两者的流量入口显然比 Web3 要大得多，覆盖人群更为广泛。而反观 Web3 短剧，最大的区别是价值内容产出与链上资产的介入。但无论如何解释，历史确有相似之处，纯粹的「Watch to Earn」模式很难持续，毕竟人人都 Earn，最终，总需要人来买单，而买单者，就只能是后来的接盘者。

归根结底，在 Web3 领域，由于繁琐的钱包操作以及分散的流量入口，有效流量的获取成本与链上 APP 的构建成本天然就高于 Web2，为获得正向的 ROI，决定了项目方需要获取比 Web2 更高的收益，从其他方向进行收割，最后的目的也多直指发币。实际上，这种模式显然是低效的，若是出现在传统互联网，高成本的商业模式并无竞争力，而在 Web3，实现此的核心则需要评估链上服务能否值得用信任换取效率。可以认为，很多的 Web3 项目从最初就不具备商业可行性，现实也如出一辙，纵观 Web3 项目，能实现自我造血能力的项目少之又少。

当然，作为业内人士，短剧的风吹到 Web3，实属是一件好事，凭借此，尽管略有失真，但圈外人也可通过剧作更为了解区块链的世界。最终，观众获得了情绪价值，项目方获得了流量，发行方获得了题材与收入，这又何乐而不为呢？