On-chain data for the 18th week: May entered a recovery period, and the second half of the year may usher in another rise

Original title: "Is the adjusted repair on the way? | WTR 5.06"

Original source: WTR Research Institute

Review of this week

This week from April 29 to May 6, the highest price of Bingtang Orange was around $65,500 and the lowest price was close to $56,552, with a fluctuation range of about 15%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips traded around 63,000, which will have a certain support or pressure.

• Analysis:
1. 59000-63000 is about 980,000 pieces;
2. 64000-68000 is about 830,000 pieces;
• The probability of not falling below 57000~61000 in the short term is 82%;
• The probability of not rising below 71000～74000 in the short term is 67%.

Important news

Economic news

1. US unemployment rate in April was 3.9%, expected to be 3.8%
2. US non-farm employment in April was 175,000, expected to be 240,000, and the previous value was 303,000.
3. On May 3, U.S. interest rate futures currently expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points twice in 2024, compared with one time before the release of the non-farm payrolls.

Crypto Ecological News

1. The former mayor of Los Angeles was hired as a policy advisor to Coinbase;
2. Uniswap launched a candle chart function to track token price changes in real time;
3. Tiger Brokers (Hong Kong) officially launched virtual asset trading services, which are currently only available to professional investors;
4. Manuel Nordeste, vice president of Fidelity Digital Assets, said at an event in London that they are working with pension funds that want to allocate Bitcoin;
5. Hunter Horseley, CEO of Bitwise, said: "Many traditional and reputable companies have begun to participate in the Bitcoin business in an unprecedented way;
6. BlackRock said they are meeting with a range of investors to discuss Bitcoin ETFs, including pensions, endowment funds, sovereign wealth funds, and insurance companies;
7. A BTC ETF whale appeared in Hong Kong, named Ovata Capital Management. The fund is distributed in four different US stock ETFs with a total allocation of 6,000 They said their goal is to generate absolute returns that are unrelated to the overall performance of the stock market;
8. Well-known European institutions disclosed BTC holdings in 13F documents: Swiss bank Lombard Odier ($209B AUM) owns $1.5 million worth of IBIT;
9. BNP Paribas bought 1,030 shares of IBIT tokens in the quarter.

Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural changes/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situation we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions

Long-term insights

• BlackRock and Grayscale ETF net positions
• Grayscale ETF net positions
• Grayscale ETF’s BTC reserves
• High-quality selling pressure

(Below is the figure: BlackRock and Grayscale ETF net positions)

From the perspective of ETFs, the most important players currently influencing multiple markets are BlackRock and Grayscale.
At the beginning, BlackRock had a large amount of inflow in the market, that is, buying, and now BlackRock is also showing a negative selling state.

（The figure below shows the net position of Grayscale ETF）

The selling pressure of Grayscale ETF began to gradually decrease. It showed an inflow on the previous day, that is, buying, but it continued to flow out on the next day, but the overall outflow (selling) has begun to decline.

（The figure below shows the BTC fund reserves of Grayscale ETF）

At present, Grayscale's BTC reserves have sold 11 billion US dollars, and there are about 17 billion US dollars left. It is expected that after a 40% reduction, the remaining chips may not change too much, and the impact on the market will gradually decline.

（Figure below: High-quality selling pressure）

High-quality selling pressure reduces the selling pressure area, which is the previous cyan position.
Generally speaking, if it is a future bull market, this is a good left-side buying opportunity.

Medium-term exploration

• Network sentiment positivity
• Accumulation trend points
• Incremental structure
• Risk factor 3
• USDC exchange net position

（Figure below: Network sentiment positivity）

The overall trading sentiment has not yet recovered and is still in a state of repair.
This model plays a key role in judging the medium-term trend, and it may take some time to adjust and repair.

（Accumulation trend points in the figure below）

All addresses in the market still lack a trend of accumulation, and it may take some time to ease the accumulation sentiment.
Of course, the premise is that purchasing power continues to recover.

（Incremental structure in the figure below）

The increment has dropped to a great extent, which may still be insufficient compared to the short-term market.

（WTR risk factor 3 in the figure below）

Red line: BTC risk factor 3
Blue line: ETH risk factor 3
During May 20-24, the BTC risk factor 3 increased.
It has now fallen back to a relatively average position, and the current value is still slightly rising, but a large amount of risk has been initially released compared to before.

（USDC exchange net position in the figure below）

Currently, USDC's exchange net position has shown initial signs of recovery.
The main users of USDC are US institutions, and their support behavior relative to the bottom has forward-looking prompts.

Short-term observation

• Derivatives risk factor
• Option intention transaction ratio
• Derivatives trading volume
• Option implied volatility
• Profit and loss transfer volume
• New addresses and active addresses
• Bingtangcheng exchange net position
• Yitai exchange net position
• High-weight selling pressure
• Global purchasing power status
• Stablecoin exchange net position
• Off-chain exchange data

Derivatives rating: The risk factor is in the dangerous area. Derivatives are relatively risky.

（Figure below: Derivatives risk factor）

The market performed in line with expectations last week. The current risk factor has reached the danger zone. This week, a small fluctuation or a small derivatives liquidation
squeeze is expected.

（Figure below: Options intention transaction ratio）

Both the option trading volume and the put option ratio have decreased moderately.

（Figure below: Derivatives trading volume）

Derivatives trading volume has returned to a low level.

（The figure below shows the implied volatility of options）

The implied volatility has rebounded slightly.

Sentiment rating: neutral

（The figure below shows the profit and loss transfer volume）

There was a small amount of panic selling after the short-term holder cost line was touched last week, and it has now returned to calm.

（The figure below shows the new addresses and active addresses）

The new and active addresses are at a low level.

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Overall, it is in a state of accumulation of trace inflows, and the selling pressure is low.

（The figure below shows the net position of Bingtangcheng Exchange）

There was a small amount of inflow accumulation this week, which is currently being slowly digested, and the overall selling pressure is low.

（E-Tai Exchange Net Position in the Figure Below）

USDT is currently in an outflow accumulation state.

（High-weight selling pressure in the Figure Below）

There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.

Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has slightly rebounded, and stablecoin purchasing power is basically flat.

（Global purchasing power status in the Figure Below）

Currently, only the purchasing power of America has slightly rebounded, and the purchasing power of Asia and Europe is still in an outflow state.

（USDT Exchange Net Position in the Figure Below）

USDT net position is flat overall.

Off-chain transaction data rating: Willing to buy at 60,000; willing to sell at 65,000.

(The following figure shows the Coinbase off-chain data)

Willing to buy at prices around 56,000 and 62,000; Willing to sell at prices around 65,000 and 66,000.

(The following figure shows the Binance off-chain data)

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 57,000, 58,000, and 60,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 65,000, 67,000, and 68,000.

(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 63,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 66,000 and 68,000.

Summary of this week

Summary of news:

1. In April, the market entered an adjustment due to the impact of macroeconomics; May is expected to be a relative repair period.
2. Under the premise of maintaining macroeconomic stability, there may be an opportunity for another rise in the second half of the year.
3. From the overall development of the industry, the halving cycle, the construction of the internal ecology, and the positive progress of the US Stablecoin Act can still bring internal growth and value support to the industry.

Long-term insights on the chain:

1. BlackRock has also transformed from previous buying to relative selling;
2. Grayscale's selling trend began to decrease. During this period, Grayscale sold a total of about 11 billion US dollars;
3. High-quality selling pressure returned to the low selling pressure area

• Market tone:
As the market advances, Grayscale will have fewer and fewer selling chips available. The selling pressure will gradually decrease.

On-chain mid-term exploration:

1. Network sentiment is still in the repair stage;
2. The group accumulation in the market is weak;
3. The current continuous incremental situation in the market has not recovered;
4. WTR risk factor 3 shows that the risk has been initially released;
5. In the observation of USDC users, a large amount of purchasing power has been restored.

• Market tone:

Repair
The market has initially released risks, but it will take some time for trading sentiment to recover.

On-chain short-term observation:

1. The risk factor is in the dangerous area and the risk is relatively high.
2. The number of newly added active addresses is at a low level.
3. Market sentiment status rating: neutral.
4. The net position of the exchange as a whole shows a slight inflow accumulation state, and the selling pressure is low.
5. Global purchasing power has recovered slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has remained basically the same.
6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 60,000 and a willingness to sell at 65,000.
7. The probability of not falling below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 82%; the probability of not rising below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.

• Market tone:
The overall market sentiment in the short term is still neutral. There are no particularly obvious signals in the current market selling pressure, purchasing power, and demand. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate slightly or a small amount of derivatives will be squeezed out.

Risk warning: The above are all market discussions and explorations, and do not have directional opinions on investment; please be cautious and prevent market black swan risks.

This article comes from a contribution and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.

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