Expectations of interest rate cuts have been "frustrated" again. Are "smart money" waiting for BTC to buy the bottom of $62,000?

Original title: "Expectations of interest rate cuts have been "frustrated" again, "smart money" is waiting for the BTC bottom of $62,000? 》

Original author: Mary Liu, BitpushNews

On the first day of trading on Wall Street in the second quarter, new economic data in the United States prompted investors After reducing bets on interest rate cuts this year, the SP 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell. The SP closed down 0.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index edged up 0.1%.

The overall crypto market is in decline. Bitcoin is almost close to testing the key support level of $68,000. It once fell to $68,089.00 during the day and was still hovering at $70,000 as of the close of the US stock market. Below, down 1.8% in 24 hours, Ethereum (ETH) fell 1.54% to fall below $3,600, XRP fell 2.36%, and ADA fell 2.63%. Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the entire crypto market has been liquidated, resulting in US$316 million, of which bulls accounted for the majority, reaching US$257 million.

Traders lower interest rate cut bets Note

The biggest data point affecting the market today is the ISM manufacturing index. The index rose 2.5% to 50.3% in March, exceeding all economists’ expectations. The index More than 50% indicates that manufacturing managers believe the manufacturing market is expanding.

Promoted by this data, the U.S. dollar index DXY exceeded 105 for the first time since November 2023, rising 0.49% on the day, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield hit two A new weekly high, rising 13.1 basis points to 4.325% during the day.

The ISM report is not government data incorporated into the Commerce Department's quarterly economic growth data. But they are closely watched by investors, who view the data as a sign that the economy is doing well and the Fed may not need to cut rates to help the economy despite higher rates over the past few years. Bond traders are now pricing in less than a 50% chance of a rate cut in June 2024, a shock to a market where investors had expected as many as six rate cuts.

Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized in his speech that the Fed hopes to lower interest rates only after it is more confident about the inflation trend. Strong labor market conditions mean that the current There is no urgency to cut interest rates.

Holidays lead to reduced liquidity

Well-known trader Daan Crypto Trades said that the Easter holiday may be the A factor in the market correction today.

He said on the Market closure related. Expect the usual inflows/outflows to start again starting tomorrow."

Meanwhile, BTC/USD is currently at its lowest since March 25 levels, Daan Crypto Trades believes that a break below the 200-period moving average (currently $67,330) on the 4-hour time frame is not out of the question. "Prices are testing the 4H/1D trend here, and it will be more of a test and error before prices get back above $70,000," he said.

At the same time, the transaction In the latest "New York Color" update sent to Telegram channel subscribers, the company QCP Capital warned of increased "downward pressure" on the cryptocurrency spot market, saying: "Over the past 24 hours, we have Seeing strong interest in BTC and ETH selling calls and buying puts."

"Smart money" target is at 62,000 Buy the USD Dip

By tracking Binance trading order book liquidity, Material Indicators charts BTC between now and the upcoming block subsidy halving Price chart.

In a series of X posts, Material Indicators co-founder Keith Alan said : "Although Bitcoin has closed in the green for the seventh consecutive month in history, there is no 'only upside' to the halving. Smart Money has lowered the bid to add to the position to $62,000."

Alan went on to say that Bitcoin may cause problems for institutional buyers as the price fluctuates in relatively unknown territory, but that once the halving comes and goes, people will be firmly convinced. Conviction at an all-time high.

He commented: “At least one entity believes that this possibility is very likely, because after the price of BTC briefly fell below $69,000, they increased their interest in BTC. The position target price has been reduced to $62,000, which among other things shows that even institutions are not sure where the price will fall back, so they are happy to take DCA positions in this range because there is a high degree of confidence that the price will fall after the halving. A new ATH will appear."

BTC will surge to $150,000 after halving

Morgan Creek Capital CEO Mark Yusko is accepting CNBC said in an interview that although the price of Bitcoin is still lower than last month’s historical high, based on its historical performance, the price of Bitcoin may soar to $150,000 after the halving.

He analyzed: "The big moves happen after the halving, and by the end of the year, its trend will start to become more... parabolic. And, historically, Look, it's about nine months after the halving, so sometime around Thanksgiving, Christmas, we'll see a price peak before the next bear market."

As for Morgan Creek Capital’s strategy for dealing with the bull market, Yusko revealed that they have allocated 80% of their investment portfolio to private equity and 20% to high-liquidity tokens. The main tokens of focus include Ethereum (ETH), Solana  ;(SOL) and Avalanche (AVAX).

Original link

Welcome to join the official BlockBeats community:

Telegram subscription group: https://t.me/theblockbeats

Telegram communication group: https://t.me/theblockbeatsApp

Twitter official account: https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia